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Introduction
Have you ever wondered what Statistics Canada does with their census data? Well we have. Our names are Nihla Hussain and Madeleine Gorman-Asal, and in February 2020 we attended the Atlantic Student Research Journal’s inaugural Reaching Higher conference. It was there that we first learned about the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data, and Training (NB-IRDT), and its Pathways to Professions program. We both share a passion for research, which led us to attend the conference and to apply for the 2020 Pathways to Professions program.
Pathways to Professions (P2P) is a 13-week experiential learning program that gives UNB students the opportunity to work with a research team while attending training sessions on research methods and job readiness skills. We both applied to P2P for the chance to work within a collaborative environment to solve problems while thinking creatively and critically, and we were both accepted as Data Analysts.
This summer (2020), we worked together on a research project that was entitled “Population New Brunswick” or PopNB for short, led by UNB’s Dr. Ted McDonald. We were tasked with characterizing the population of New Brunswick in a variety of ways. We compiled and analyzed open source data from Statistics Canada on topics such as immigrant employment, post-secondary enrolments, and the income evolution of various population segments. The end result was a detailed evaluation of New Brunswick’s population.
Our Research and Data
To set the stage for our data analyses, we first conducted an extensive literature review on the topics we were given. This preliminary review was a crucial step that later enabled us to identify the relevance of any findings and present them in a manner that contributed to any existing findings on the subject matters at hand.
After establishing a thorough understanding of the topics, we were provided with specific research questions that detailed variables of interest such as sex, age, and immigrant admission categories. We further identified how to quantify these variables using criteria such as the total number, median income, or retention rate of the individuals who belonged to each category.
The next step was finding appropriate data sets that corresponded with the research questions. We opted to take three topics each and individually sought out their data sources. Common roadblocks that we encountered when searching for data sets included a lack of data availability and variable inconsistency (i.e. data quality). Most topics involved comparing New Brunswick to other Atlantic provinces; however, given the small size of the province, Statistics Canada had gaps in the data for groups below a certain size because of privacy concerns.
Some of the topics we investigated also involved census data, which required manual compilation of the annual data. Due to changes in the structure of the survey from census to census, certain variables had to be used as proxies in order to conduct the analysis. Once we found and downloaded the appropriate datasets, we manipulated the data using Microsoft Excel to create visualizations that were intended to highlight the most interesting findings from the analysis.
Results
The purpose of our research was to explore pertinent issues facing New Brunswick and to provide evidence regarding those issues, which could then be used to form impactful solutions. We will discuss a selection of our results here.
Our research topics with P2P were Population Age, Marital Status and Family Characteristics, Farm Population, as well as Postsecondary Enrolments and Graduation Outcomes. These were analyzed by Nihla. Madeleine analyzed the topics of Immigrant Income and Employment, Immigrant Mobility, and Income Evolution of Population Segments.
Our analysis of demographic shifts in New Brunswick highlighted that the province has the second fastest aging population compared to the other Atlantic provinces. New Brunswicks’s senior population (aged 65 years and above) increased by 6.5 percentage points between 2001 and 2016, and they currently comprise 20% of the total population. The province has also shifted to smaller family sizes, which is evidenced by the decrease in the number of new marriages and couples with children. This point is further proven by the increase in lone parents, of which the majority are females. With youth and working-age groups decreasing and the number of retirees increasing, we identified a growing concern over a pending labour market gap. For example, the number of farm operators aged 55 and above increased by 21% between 2001 and 2016. The aging population of this group is associated with an overall decline in the number of working farm operators in the province.
Further data analysis quantified the economic implications of the demographic shifts we had previously identified. For example, we found that female lone parents earn approximately $13,000 less than male lone parents, and earn $41,000 less than couple parents, on an annual basis. In New Brunswick, there were significantly more female lone parents than male which has been increasing in recent years.
When it comes to population expansion in New Brunswick, we found that youth and immigrant retention were key contributors to the province’s growth. Our analysis of post-secondary enrolments and graduation outcomes provided us with insights on which fields may have future skill shortages caused by low enrolments.
Our analysis exposed a decrease in enrolments and graduates in Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM), and non-STEM fields over time. Health-related fields had the most pronounced decrease in graduates, yet the province is in dire need for nurses and other healthcare professionals due to the aging population. The data also showed 38% more female graduates in non-STEM fields versus 60% more male graduates in STEM fields. Overall, males also had a median reported income that was 19% higher than that of females five years after completing their undergraduate degree.
International students also represented a significant portion of postsecondary enrolments and even showed great potential for growth and stability in the future workforce. This group made up 22% of business field graduates, 17% of education graduates, and 36% of the graduates in mathematics and computer sciences. Developing programs to better equip students for the workforce, such as experiential learning and providing equal opportunities for minority groups like women and international students, may benefit the province in the long term by connecting New Brunswick students with exciting local employment opportunities.
After investigating immigrant income and retention, we learned which groups (categorized by sex, age, admission categories, and pre-admission experience) had the highest income and retention. This provided potentially valuable information on groups the government may want to centralize admission targets towards in the future, based on their contributions to the local economy. Our data showed that those with previous work or study experience in Canada had higher incomes on average than other admission categories and were more likely to remain in New Brunswick. Specifically, individuals who entered through the Canadian Experience Class earned the highest income across all admission categories for each Atlantic province, and individuals with work or study permits prior to admission had higher retention rates than those without permits. However, all admission categories and pre-admission experience types were well below the 2024 New Brunswick retention target of 85%.
Summary
The outlined findings were key highlights from both of our analyses. Our goal was to characterize the population of New Brunswick in a multitude of ways. Our full results painted a broad picture of population demographics and will soon be available at www.nbirdt.ca if you would like to learn more. The information we had obtained is particularly relevant to youth, since our research suggested that New Brunswick will have a diverse range of opportunities in the future as population growth stagnates and many skill sets become high in demand.
There were also several policy implications that stemmed from our findings that would support the growth of the province that we would like to mention. First, the province of New Brunswick may consider investing more in agricultural training or technology as the farm population declines. In general, policies and programs targeted towards education and training, such as experiential learning, may better equip local residents and postsecondary students to contribute to a skilled workforce. Additionally, New Brunswick could focus retention efforts towards immigrants with work and study experience in Canada prior to admission as this group had shown higher retention rates than those without these experiences.
As a whole, our research process was not without its setbacks. As previously mentioned, a significant issue we encountered was data limitations which was to be expected considering our use of open source data. There were also challenges when it came to refining each research topic to match the available data sets as well as obstacles that arose from structuring topics to find common themes given that this was the project’s first launch. Our goal is for future P2P participants to build on the research that we had carried out and to provide annual updates about New Brunswick’s population.
In future years of the program, we suggest investigating demographic changes by geographic areas within New Brunswick to target specific locations for immigration and population growth. Subsequent characterizations of the province could also be expanded to include different ethnic groups and languages. These future investigations are highly contingent on data availability but are certainly worth looking into.
Message to Students
Overall, we had a positive experience with P2P and benefited from the opportunity to engage with stakeholders and hear from professionals in a variety of fields to better pave our own career paths. Our advice to fellow students is to take advantage of experiential learning opportunities such as P2P, because they provide technical hands-on experience and increase exposure to local job opportunities. We also recommend that future students contribute to discussions and ask questions when networking opportunities arise given the wide range of New Brunswick professionals at their disposal with P2P.
Regardless of the field, having an opportunity to work in an experiential learning environment encourages personal growth in many dimensions, so long as one is willing to step outside of their comfort zone. We both encourage anyone who is enthusiastic about gaining exposure to the research field and building their data literacy, communication, and collaboration skills to apply to P2P. Keep an eye out for applications, which will be available early 2021!
*This article was written with assistance from UNB student Noubahar Hasnain, Communications Coordinator for the 2020 Pathways to Professions team.
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